Ci gaban tattalin arziki ya kawo cikas ga masana'antar jigilar kaya; Wasu kamfanonin jigilar kaya sun yi la'akari da hanyoyin Tekun Ja
A wani yanayi mai ban mamaki, kamfanonin jigilar kaya da dama suna ƙoƙarin dawo da ayyukan da ke kan hanyar Tekun Bahar Maliya, wanda hakan ke nuna canji a martanin da ake mayarwa ga karuwar haɗarin siyasa a yankin. Kamfanonin cinikayya na ƙasashen waje da yawa sun koyi darasi daga ƙalubalen da annobar COVID-19 ta haifar, suna amfani da kayan aikin kuɗi kamar shinge don rage haɗari.
A ranar 22 ga Disamba, babban kwangilar gaba ta Freight Index (Euro Route), EC2404, ta kai ga iyakar yau da kullun a rana ta biyar a jere ta ciniki, inda ta rufe da maki 1391.2, karuwar kashi 14.99%. Wannan karuwar, wadda ta zarce kashi 50% a cikin kwanaki biyar da suka gabata, ta faru ne sakamakon abubuwan da ba a zata ba a fannin siyasa, wanda ya haifar da karuwar farashi mai yawa a kasuwar, wanda daga baya ya shafi kasuwar gaba.
A ranar bayan kasuwa, Shanghai Sufurin Jiragen Ruwa ta sanar da gyare-gyare ga kuɗaɗen ciniki na kwangilolin gaba na Freight Index (Euro Route) (EC2404, EC2406, EC2408, EC2410, EC2412), wanda ya fara aiki a ranar 25 ga Disamba, tare da saita kuɗaɗen ciniki a 0.006% na adadin ciniki da kuma kuɗaɗen rufe matsayi na cikin yini a 0.012% na adadin ciniki.
Manyan masu sharhi sun danganta sauyin farashin nan gaba na Freight Index (Euro Route) da abubuwan da ba a zata ba a fannin siyasa, wanda ya haifar da hauhawar farashin kasuwa cikin sauri.
Rahoton mako-mako na baya-bayan nan na Kasuwar Jiragen Ruwa ta Shanghai ya nuna karuwar farashin sufuri a kasuwar jigilar kayayyaki ta Asiya da Turai saboda barazanar hare-hare masu dauke da makamai a yankin Tekun Bahar Maliya. Wannan ya sa manyan kamfanonin jigilar kayayyaki da ke aiki a hanyar Asiya da Turai suka sanar da karkatar da kayayyaki, wanda ya haifar da karuwar nisan jigilar kayayyaki da farashinsu, tare da raguwar ingancin jigilar jiragen ruwa.
Ganin yadda manyan kamfanonin jiragen sama ke da tasiri ga kasuwar, sun ƙara yawan farashinsu a kasuwar a makon da ya gabata. A ranar 22 ga Disamba, an ruwaito cewa farashin kasuwa na fitar da kaya daga Shanghai zuwa Turai da tashoshin jiragen ruwa na Bahar Rum ya kai dala $1497 a kowace FEU da $2054 a kowace TEU, wanda ke wakiltar ƙaruwar kashi 45.5% da 30.9%, bi da bi.
A ranar 25 ga Disamba, masu sharhi sun raba wani rahoton bincike da ke nuna gagarumin canjin da ke faruwa a kasuwa. Sun jaddada tasirin katsewar da ke faruwa a Tekun Maliya kan hanyoyin jigilar kaya, wanda hakan ke haifar da karancin karfin jigilar kaya a hanyar Asiya da Turai a cikin dan gajeren lokaci.
Dangane da hasashen kasuwa na ci gaba da ƙaruwar farashin kaya, majiyoyi daga dandalin Yun Qu Na sun sanar da manema labarai cewa wasu masu jiragen ruwa sun buɗe rajistar jiragen zuwa Bahar Maliya. An tsara tashin waɗannan jiragen zuwa ƙarshen Disamba, inda farashin jigilar kaya ya ninka sau biyu.
Da suke tabbatar da waɗannan ci gaban, sanarwar da aka fitar a ranar 25 ga Disamba ta ambaci cewa, bisa ga shirin "Masu Tsaron Albarkatu", kamfanoni suna shirin dawo da ayyukan da ke kan hanyar gabas zuwa yamma ta cikin Tekun Bahar Maliya. Suna tsara tsare-tsare don hanzarta wucewar rukunin jiragen ruwa na farko, gwargwadon yuwuwar aiki.
Masu sharhi sun yi imanin cewa wannan shawarar na iya canza hasashen da aka yi a baya game da karancin kayan aiki bayan watan Maris, wanda hakan zai iya hanzarta daidaita karfin jigilar kaya.
Yayin da suke tantance tasirin wannan shawarar kai tsaye, kamfanoni sun jaddada jajircewarsu ga hasashen abokan ciniki da ingancin sarkar samar da kayayyaki. Duk da haka, sun lura cewa duk da matakan tsaro na yanzu, ba a kawar da haɗarin da ke tattare da yankin ba. Kamfanonin sun bayyana cewa, idan aka yi wa tsaron ma'aikatan jirgin lahani, za su sake duba lamarin tare da fara shirye-shiryen sake tsara hanya.
Bayan wannan labari, a ranar 25 ga Disamba, dukkan kwangilolin gaba na Freight Index (Euro Route) sun fuskanci koma baya sosai, inda kwangilolin suka ragu da fiye da kashi 8%.
Cibiyoyi da dama sun lura da raunin ra'ayin bunƙasa a kasuwa, wanda ya shaida raguwar sha'awar dukkan kwangiloli da raguwar matsayi. Duk da rufewa da raguwar asara, yawan ciniki yana nuna babban bambancin kasuwa, wanda hakan ke sa ya zama ƙalubale a hango wani yanayi a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.
Domin gargaɗin mahalarta kasuwa, Shanghai Futures Exchange ta fitar da sanarwa guda biyu a ranar 25 ga Disamba, inda ta daidaita rabon riba da iyakokin farashi na kwangilolin gaba na Freight Index (Euro Route). Waɗannan matakan suna da nufin tunatar da 'yan kasuwa su yi taka tsantsan wajen tantance tasirin abubuwan da ba a zata ba na ɗan gajeren lokaci kan farashin jigilar kaya da kuma shiga kasuwannin gaba tare da ikon sarrafa matsayi mai ma'ana.
Bayan ɗan koma-baya, a ranar 26 ga Disamba, kwangilar gaba ta Babban Ma'aunin Kaya (Euro Route) ta daidaita kuma ta ci gaba da hauhawa, inda ta kai iyakar yau da kullun da ƙaruwar kashi 16.99%.
Binciken masu sharhi ya nuna buƙatar sa ido kan ainihin tasirin aiwatar da ayyukan rakiya a cikin Tekun Bahar Maliya, yiwuwar asarar ingancin wucewa idan aka kwatanta da matakan da aka saba, da kuma ko faɗaɗa farashin inshora zai ƙara canzawa zuwa ga masu jigilar kaya na ƙasa.
A tsakiyar ci gaban da ake samu, har zuwa ranar 25 ga Disamba, babu wani kamfanin jigilar kaya da ya bi sahun sake dawo da hanyoyin Tekun Bahar Maliya. A cewar bayanai daga Yihailan, jiragen ruwan kwantena da ke ratsawa ta mashigin Mandeb sun ragu sosai tun daga ranar 15 ga Disamba, inda adadin jiragen ruwa da kuma tan na kowanne mutum ke fuskantar raguwa sosai.
Zaɓin hanya mai tsawo a kewayen Cape of Good Hope, kodayake tsawaita lokacin tafiya, ba shi da tsada, ba kamar Suez Canal ba, wanda ke tilasta biyan kuɗin shiga. Hukumar Kula da Magudanar Ruwa ta Suez ta ba da rahoton cewa kimanin jiragen ruwa 23,000 ne suka ratsa magudanar a shekarar 2022, wanda ya samar da kusan dala biliyan 8 a matsayin kuɗin shiga. Tare da matsakaicin kuɗin shiga na dala $347,000 ga kowane jirgin ruwa, wannan farashin yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa kowace shekara.
Ya kamata a lura cewa magudanar ruwa ta Suez tana ba da gudummawa sosai ga tattalin arzikin Masar, wanda ya ƙunshi kusan kashi ɗaya bisa uku na jimillar yawan amfanin tattalin arzikin ƙasar. Har yanzu ba a tantance cikakken tasirin tattalin arziki na katsewar magudanar ruwa ta baya-bayan nan ba.
Abin da ya faru a baya na toshewar mashigar ruwa ta Suez ya nuna raunin cinikayyar duniya da hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki. Duk da cewa tasirin harin jiragen ruwa na baya-bayan nan ya yi ƙasa da abin da ya faru a baya, muhimman cibiyoyi kamar mashigar ruwa ta Suez da mashigar ruwa ta Panama, idan aka wargaza su, har yanzu suna iya yin tasiri mai yawa ga cinikin duniya.
Masu sharhi sun nuna cewa sake fasalin jiragen ruwa a yankin kudancin Afirka yana haifar da ƙarin kuɗaɗen dala miliyan 1 a kowace tafiya da kuma kwanaki 7-10 na lokacin tafiya. Wannan ya haifar da sauyi a farashin mai na ƙasashen duniya.
Kamar yadda Shanghai Securities News ta ruwaito, farashin mai na ƙasashen duniya ya sake farfadowa tun bayan da tashin hankalin Tekun Bahar Maliya ya ƙaru. Man fetur na WTI ya tashi kusan kashi 7% zuwa dala 73.49 a kowace ganga, yayin da man fetur na Brent shi ma ya karu kusan kashi 7% zuwa dala 78.89 a kowace ganga a ranar 22 ga Disamba, duka biyun sun kai sabon matsayi tun daga ranar 5 ga Disamba.
Duk da haka, idan aka kwatanta da tasirin rikicin Isra'ila da Falasdinu a watan Oktoba, hauhawar farashin mai a halin yanzu yana nuna babban matakin hankali a kasuwa. Duk da cewa toshewar Tekun Bahar Maliya na iya ƙara farashin sufuri ga wasu jiragen ruwa masu ɗaukar mai, bai shafi tushen kasuwar mai sosai ba. Tunda Yemen da Isra'ila ba manyan ƙasashe ne masu samar da mai ba, katsewar ba zai yi tasiri ga samar da mai a Gabas ta Tsakiya ba. Bugu da ƙari, yawancin fitar da mai daga Gabas ta Tsakiya ya dogara ne akan Mashigin Hormuz, don haka matuƙar wannan hanyar jigilar kaya ta kasance a buɗe, ya kamata a sami ƙaramin tasiri ga tushen kasuwar mai ta duniya da tsarin ciniki.
Masu sharhi sun nuna cewa daga mahangar matsakaicin lokaci, yayin da lamarin ke gab da warwarewa, ana sa ran sassauta tashin hankali a kwata na farko na shekara mai zuwa zai kwantar da hankali kan tasirin da ke biyo baya kan hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki, jigilar kaya, da farashin kayayyaki.
A ƙarshe, ci gaban da aka samu a fannin tattalin arziki a Tekun Bahar Maliya ya haifar da sauye-sauye a masana'antar jigilar kayayyaki, inda wasu kamfanonin jiragen ruwa ke sa ido kan sake dawo da hanyoyin jiragen. Duk da cewa wannan shawarar na iya canza tsammanin kasuwa a baya, tasirin da aka samu a fannin cinikayyar duniya, hanyoyin samar da kayayyaki, da farashin mai har yanzu ba a tabbatar da shi ba. Masu sharhi sun ba da shawarar yin taka tsantsan, suna mai jaddada bukatar yin nazari mai kyau kan katsewar da za ta faru a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci da kuma shiga cikin kasuwar nan gaba.
Lokacin Saƙo: Disamba-27-2023